This article needs additional citations for verification. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. (September 2018) (Learn how and when to remove this template message)

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2020 (special) →

Nominee John McCain Ann Kirkpatrick Gary Swing Party Republican Democratic Green Popular vote 1,359,267 1,031,245 138,634 Percentage 53.7% 40.8% 5.5%

County Results McCain:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Kirkpatrick:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Senator before election John McCain Republican Elected U.S. Senator John McCain Republican

Elections in Arizona
Federal government Presidential elections 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Presidential primaries Democratic 2004 2008 2016 Republican 2008 2012 2016 U.S. Senate elections 1912 1914 1916 1920 1922 1926 1928 1932 1934 1938 1940 1944 1946 1950 1952 1956 1958 1962 1964 1968 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1986 1988 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2020 (special) U.S. House elections 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1st 8th 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Special elections 8th district, 2012 8th district, 2018
State government State elections 2006 2010 2014 2016 2018 Gubernatorial elections 1911 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Ballot propositions 2000 203 2004 200 204 2006 107 207 2008 102 2010 100 203 Legislature elections 2006
Phoenix Mayoral elections 2011 2015
Tucson Mayoral elections 2011
v t e

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the State of Arizona, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the Senate in other states and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The Arizona Democratic primary, 2016 was held on March 22, 2016, selecting Ann Kirkpatrick as the Democratic nominee. The Arizona Republican primary election took place on August 30, 2016.^[1]

After serving in the Arizona legislature and U.S. House for a number of years, Kirkpatrick sought to unseat incumbent Republican Senator John McCain, who won re-election to his sixth and final term in office.

After hinting in September 2013 that McCain could retire,^[2] he subsequently said that the chances he would run again were "pretty good", but his campaign had emphasized that he had not made a decision yet.^[3] On April 7, 2015, McCain announced that he would run for re-election.^[4] McCain faced strong primary opposition from the Tea Party, but he managed to defeat challenger Kelli Ward in the August 30 primary.^[5][6]

McCain won with 53.7% of the vote compared to Kirkpatrick's 40.8%, with 5.5% voting for the Green candidate Gary Swing.

On August 25, 2018, Senator John McCain died of brain cancer, leading Governor Doug Ducey to appoint former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. However, this action was taken with the understanding that Kyl would only serve until the end of the year. Rep. Martha McSally has been announced as Kyl's replacement starting 2019, and it is expected she will run in the 2020 special election to fill out the remainder of the term.

Republican primary[edit]

McCain at a campaign rally alongside former Governor Mitt Romney, in December 2015

Ward at her primary election night rally on August 30, 2016

John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, was re-elected to a fifth term with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. In September 2013 he hinted that he may retire, saying that "[President Obama's] in his last term, I'm probably in mine." When asked if that meant he wouldn't run for re-election, he said "I don't know. I was trying to make a point. I have to decide in about two years so I don't have to make a decision [now]. I don't want to be one of these old guys that should've shoved off."^[2] He then said in October 2013 that he was "seriously thinking" about running for re-election.^[7] By April 2014 he had held his first fundraiser^[8] and acknowledged that "elements on the right" would like to primary him, which he said was "fine with me... you know me: a fight not joined is a fight not enjoyed... I know that I will be very well-prepared." Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report noted that McCain did not fit the profile of a "complacent, long-serving incumbent", saying: "It's not an easy thing to take him on. He is going to be well-prepared, and he has a well-earned reputation for running really tough campaigns. He raises a lot of money and he puts together a good organization."^[9]

In September 2014, McCain began having "serious conversations" with state Republicans, local officials and key supporters about running for re-election. He faced a primary challenge in 2010 from former Congressman J. D. Hayworth, who some felt was the weaker opponent. McCain massively outspent and easily defeated him. However, he could face a stronger challenger in 2016.^[5] A survey by Public Policy Polling in March 2014 found that McCain was the most unpopular Senator in the country, with 30% of Arizonans approving of him to 54% who disapproved. His unpopularity was bipartisan, with his approvals at 35%–55% with Republicans, 29%–53% with Democrats and 25%–55% with independents.^[10] An April 2014 survey by The Polling Company for Citizens United Political Victory Fund found that 64.2% of Republican primary voters favored "a new person" to 29.3% who thought that "Senator McCain deserves to be re-elected to another six-year term." It also found him trailing in match-ups with a generic primary opponent and against specific opponents (see below).^[11]

Further compounding matters for McCain was his relationship with the Arizona Republican Party.^[5] After his re-election in 2010, McCain adopted more orthodox conservative stances and attitudes and largely opposed actions of the Obama administration. By 2013, however, he had become a key figure in the Senate for negotiating deals on certain issues in an otherwise partisan environment. By early 2014, McCain's apostasies were enough that the Arizona Republican Party formally censured him for having what they saw as a liberal record that had been "disastrous and harmful". The action had no practical effect but showed that McCain's history of being criticized at the state level as insufficiently conservative was still ongoing.^[12] Tea Party leaders have said that they are "sick to death" of McCain and will oppose him if he seeks re-election,^[5] with one prominent critic of McCain saying that Arizona conservatives were preparing for a "civil war".^[6] However, McCain still had a large warchest - $1.7 million as of June 2014 - and would be helped by Arizona state law, which allows independents to vote in the Republican primary.^[5]

By early October 2014, McCain was telling reporters that the odds of him running for re-election were "pretty good", saying that whether or not Republicans retake control of the Senate in the 2014 elections would be a factor in his decision-making, "but it certainly wouldn't be the deciding factor."^[6] In late October, it was revealed that McCain had scheduled a meeting with supporters two days after the 2014 midterm elections to "discuss my thoughts on my own re-election in 2016."^[3] At that meeting, following the Republican takeover of the Senate, he said that he was "seriously considering" and "leaning towards" running for re-election and will make an announcement in early 2015.^[13]

In December 2014, Politico reported that McCain and his allies were waging an "aggressive and systematic campaign" to purge the Arizona Republican Party's apparatus of Tea Party and far-right conservatives who hold "obscure, but influential, local party offices" and replace them with McCain loyalists.^[14][15] The Super PAC "Arizona Grassroots Action" was created, which raised almost $300,000 and supported McCain-allied candidates with mailers and automated phone calls, bringing attention to what were previously low-profile and uncontested races.^[14] Before August 26, when elections for party offices were held, almost all of the 3,925 precinct committeemen (who vote for local party chairmen, who in turn make decisions on how the party will spend state and local funds, which candidates receive endorsements or funding etc.) were opposed to McCain. After the elections, 1,531 (39%) were regarded as supportive of McCain.^[14] Most notably, Timothy Schwartz, who authored the resolution which censured McCain, was ousted.^[14][16] Schwartz attacked McCain for using his "prominence and money and influence" to "ramrod" his critics and former Maricopa County Republican Party Chairman A.J. LaFaro said that McCain was "vindictive" and engaging in the equivalent of "ethnic cleansing".^[14]

Tea Party Congressmen Matt Salmon and David Schweikert had been widely regarded as two of the most serious potential challengers to McCain. The pair, who are close friends, agreed that if one of them decided to run against McCain, the other would not do so, to ensure that the anti-McCain vote wouldn't be split between them.^[17] Schweikert has acknowledged that he polled the race in 2014 but was considered the less likely of the two to run – he has much less cash-on-hand than Salmon and has admitted that his wife was "not thrilled" at the idea of him running for the Senate.^[17] Salmon has since stated that he will not challenge McCain in the primary.^[18]

In early February, McCain said that he was "most likely" running for re-election^[19] and Club for Growth President David McIntosh said that the organization would "watch closely" the primary race, particularly if Salmon or Schweikert ran, and would "do research and polling and determine if there's a path to victory [against McCain]."^[20] Towards the end of February, Salmon and Schweikert began to distance themselves from the race,^[21][22] with State Senator Kelli Ward revealing that she was considering a run.^[23]

McCain officially announced on April 7, 2015, that he was running for re-election.^[4]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

• 
  John McCain, incumbent U.S. Senator^[4]


• Clair Van Steenwyk, talk radio host, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate for AZ-08 in 2014^[24]


• 
  Kelli Ward, former State Senator^[25]

Withdrawn[edit]

• Alex Meluskey, printing company owner and FairTax activist^[26][27][28]


• David Pizer, businessman^[29][30]

Declined[edit]

• 
  Jan Brewer, former Governor of Arizona^[31]


• 
  Jeff DeWit, State Treasurer of Arizona^[32]


• 
  Trent Franks, U.S. Representative^[33][34]


• 
  Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative^[35]


• 
  Christine Jones, former Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for Go Daddy and candidate for Governor in 2014^[36][37][38] (running for AZ-05)


• 
  Martha McSally, U.S. Representative^[39]


• 
  Matt Salmon, U.S. Representative^[18]


• 
  David Schweikert, U.S. Representative^[5][37][40]


• 
  John Shadegg, former U.S. Representative^[33]


• 
  Grant Woods, former Arizona Attorney General^[33]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by county:

  McCain—50–60%

  McCain—40–50%

  Ward—50–60%

  Ward—40–50%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Kirkpatrick at a campaign event with supporters in Phoenix, Arizona.

Declared[edit]

• 
  Ann Kirkpatrick, U.S. Representative^[133]

Withdrawn[edit]

• Leonard Clark, teacher, State House candidate in 2002, 2004, and 2008 and Green Party nominee for AZ-03 in 2010^[134][135]


• 
  Richard Sherzan, retired administrative law judge and former Iowa State Representative^{[136][137][138]}

Declined[edit]

• 
  Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012^{[33][37][139]}


• 
  Fred DuVal, former Chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents and nominee for Governor in 2014^[35]


• 
  Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative^[37]


• 
  Phil Gordon, former Mayor of Phoenix^[33]


• 
  Mark Kelly, retired astronaut and husband of Gabrielle Giffords^[33][37]


• 
  Janet Napolitano, President of the University of California System, former Secretary of Homeland Security and former Governor of Arizona^[33][37]


• 
  Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix^[37]


• Nan Walden, businesswoman, attorney and former chief of staff to Senator Bill Bradley^[139]

Endorsements[edit]

Results[edit]

Green primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

• Gary Swing (write-in)^[144]

Results[edit]

Libertarian primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

• Merissa Hamilton (Write-In)

Results[edit]

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

References[edit]

External links[edit]

• John McCain (R) for Senate


• Ann Kirkpatrick (D) for Senate