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發表偏差（英語：publication bias）或稱為抽屜問題（英語：file drawer problem），是在學術出版過程發生的一種現象。當某項研究是否發表的決定受着該研究的結論影響時，發表偏差便會發生。發表偏差對文獻分析和元分析有深遠的負面影響，這是因為已發表的論文可能會因而側重於支持或否定相關結論^[1]。

研究无论结果显著与否，都可能按照同样的标准执行和设计^[2]。然而，效应显著的实验结果被发表的可能性为得到空结果（英语：Null result）論文的三倍。^[3]

發表偏差是由多種原因導致的。最常見的原因是研究人員根本不願意在某些結論的情況下為研究撰文或投稿。研究人員或者認為自己犯了錯誤、對該研究失去興趣、又或是預感同行對結論不感興趣^[2]。另一個例子是當某項結論已成為科學共識的時候，出版一項可靠但和共識相悖的研究很可能會帶來更大的新聞價值^[4]。

目前，取得未被發表的研究甚為困難^[5]。為了盡量避免發表偏差，有些期刊要求為研究項目在收集數據和進行分析前向開放科學中心（英语：Center for Open Science）等機構預先註冊，或是不鼓勵小規模的非隨機研究，因為這類研究容易受錯誤及偏差影響^[2]
。p曲線分析也是可取的做法^[5]。

参考文献

^ Song, F.; Parekh, S.; Hooper, L.; Loke, Y. K.; Ryder, J.; Sutton, A. J.; Hing, C.; Kwok, C. S.; Pang, C. Dissemination and publication of research findings: An updated review of related biases. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England). 2010, 14 (8): iii, iix–xi, iix–193. PMID 20181324. doi:10.3310/hta14080.

^ ^2.0^2.1^2.2 Easterbrook, P. J.; Berlin, J. A.; Gopalan, R.; Matthews, D. R. Publication bias in clinical research. Lancet. 1991, 337 (8746): 867–872. PMID 1672966. doi:10.1016/0140-6736(91)90201-Y.

^ Dickersin, K.; Chan, S.; Chalmers, T. C.; 等. Publication bias and clinical trials. Controlled Clinical Trials. 1987, 8 (4): 343–353. PMID 3442991. doi:10.1016/0197-2456(87)90155-3.

^ Luijendijk, HJ; Koolman, X. The incentive to publish negative studies: how beta-blockers and depression got stuck in the publication cycle.. J Clin Epidemiol. May 2012, 65 (5): 488–92. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2011.06.022.

^ ^5.0^5.1 H. Rothstein, A. J. Sutton and M. Borenstein. (2005). Publication bias in meta-analysis: prevention, assessment and adjustments. Wiley. Chichester, England ; Hoboken, NJ.

外部連結

The Truth Wears Off: Is there something wrong with the scientific method? -- Jonah Lehrer

Register of clinical trials conducted in the US and around the world, maintained by the National Library of Medicine, Bethesda

Skeptic's Dictionary: positive outcome bias.

Skeptic's Dictionary: file-drawer effect.

Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine

The All Results Journals

Journal of Articles in Support of the Null Hypothesis

Article on 'the decline effect' and the role of publication bias in that

Psychfiledrawer.org: Archive for replication attempts in experimental psychology

[Song2010-1] Song, F.; Parekh, S.; Hooper, L.; Loke, Y. K.; Ryder, J.; Sutton, A. J.; Hing, C.; Kwok, C. S.; Pang, C. Dissemination and publication of research findings: An updated review of related biases. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England). 2010, 14 (8): iii, iix–xi, iix–193. PMID 20181324. doi:10.3310/hta14080.

[Easterbrook-2] 2.0^2.1^2.2 Easterbrook, P. J.; Berlin, J. A.; Gopalan, R.; Matthews, D. R. Publication bias in clinical research. Lancet. 1991, 337 (8746): 867–872. PMID 1672966. doi:10.1016/0140-6736(91)90201-Y.

[3] Dickersin, K.; Chan, S.; Chalmers, T. C.; 等. Publication bias and clinical trials. Controlled Clinical Trials. 1987, 8 (4): 343–353. PMID 3442991. doi:10.1016/0197-2456(87)90155-3.

[4] Luijendijk, HJ; Koolman, X. The incentive to publish negative studies: how beta-blockers and depression got stuck in the publication cycle.. J Clin Epidemiol. May 2012, 65 (5): 488–92. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2011.06.022.

[Rothstein2005-5] 5.0^5.1 H. Rothstein, A. J. Sutton and M. Borenstein. (2005). Publication bias in meta-analysis: prevention, assessment and adjustments. Wiley. Chichester, England ; Hoboken, NJ.

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